Verification of Regcm Model with Observation Data for Çukurova Region

Abstract

Çukurova region is one of the major agricultural production regions in Turkey. In addition to extreme weather conditions, such as drought and flood, lower and/or severe rainfall along with increased temperature due to global climate change affects agricultural production. The aim of this study is to predict the climate of Çukurova Region for the period between 2071 and 2100 and determine the effects of climate change on the first and second crop corn yields, using the regional climate model, RegCM3.  Model applicability was tested by means of some test studies and verification processes. The RegCM model predicts mean maximum, mean minimum, maximum, and minimum temperatures with deviations ranging from 2.8 to -4.3, 9.2 to -7.5, 14.6 to -4.3, 8 to -8.3 and 14.3 to -5.4 ºC respectively compared to the observations for the reference period. Thus, RegCM3 has been found to be appropriate for climate change predictions in the Cukurova District. The results of rainfall simulation were closely related to topography.